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亚开行警告:若中东冲突持续 亚太经济增速将大幅放缓_蜘蛛资讯网

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周的周报中讨论过,上一轮俄乌冲突带来的油价上行客观上助推了美国通胀上行。就本轮而言,近期长端美债利率出现明显抬升,已经开始为油价上行带来通胀预期定价。  综合双方核心利益与博弈结构,我们认为本轮冲突时间或超市场预期。进入“消耗战”后,核心在于双方“拼成本、拼耐力”,此时战争结束的主动权在伊朗,而不在美国。  若战争冲突演绎超市场预期,原油市场或呈现中枢向上,波动放大,高位震荡表现。  相应的,全球

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